The Wave

Aging Trends in Chautauqua County

We’re getting older,
Chautauqua County. (Please scroll down)

“Of course we’re getting older. Everyone gets older every day.”

True, but we’re also getting older as a county. And this trend has implications for the health of all of our residents, from the oldest to the newly born.

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Which age group within Chautauqua County do you think has changed in number the most over the past 10 years?

The population of children under 5 has decreased by over 9%.

The number of children 5-9 years old has decreased by approximately 2.5%.

Children ages 10-19 have decreased in number by over 16%.

The population of adults ages 20 to 40 has declined 8.7% …

… and adults ages 40-64 have decreased in number by over 10.5%.

All of these age groups have decreased in number in our county over the past 10 years, as has our county’s total population.

Nevertheless, the largest percent change - in either direction - has been an increase in residents ages 65 to 74. Residents in that age range have increased by over 33% in the past 10 years.

In fact, the entire U.S. has been undergoing a major demographic shift, largely driven by the aging of the baby boomer generation - individuals born between 1946 and 1964. The percentage of America’s total population 65 years and older is projected to rise to 23% by 2050.

But note: that percentage in our county in 2023 was already 21%.

We can see the “wave” of Chautauqua County’s aging population by viewing a series of graphs of our county’s age distribution over the past several years.

Scroll through the following yearly graphs and watch the yellow “wave” move slowly but surely from left (younger) to right (older).

Data is from the American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

In 2023, the wave was cresting in the 60-64 years old age range.

Soon it will move into the retirement years.

But it’s not only that the 65+ population in our county is swelling.

At the same time, the number of working-age adults is decreasing.

Here’s one way to look at this:

In 2010, there were approximately 9.5 working-age adults (ages 20-64) in Chautauqua County for every 2 adults who were 70 years or older.

Ten years later, in 2020, there were approximately 8 working-age adults for every 2 adults 70 years or older.

After another 10 years, in 2030, it is projected that number will have dropped to 6 working age adults for every 2 residents 70 years or older.

The working age population is projected to decrease by 11% from 2020 to 2030, even as the number of residents needing more services is increasing.

So, what are the implications of these changes for Chautauqua County?

There are many, among them an increasing need especially for chronic disease management and for long-term care.

We can start with a look at long-term care.

While there is no required - or even officially recommended -
number of skilled nursing facility beds for a local population,
we can compare national and county numbers:

One recent study put the average number of nursing home beds at 445 per 10000 adults aged 65 years or older
(“Trends in Supply of Nursing Home Beds, 2011-2019” (Miller, Chatterjee, & Werner, 2023)).

(An earlier paper reported the US had 410 beds/10,000 population 65 and older.)

(“What is the ‘Right’ Number of Nursing Home Beds for Population Needs? An Indicator Development Project” (Wilson, Brow, & Playfair, 2017)).

According to data from the NYS Department of Health and the US Census, Chautauqua County has approximately 293 nursing home beds/10,000 residents age 65+.

Chautauqua County has:

fewer nursing home beds than the national average
increasing numbers of elderly residents
a shrinking population of working-age adults
current staffing shortages
low reimbursement rates and threats of further cuts.

CCHD